Severe Risk Categories

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Severe Climatology

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Current and Future Convective Outlooks

Convective Outlooks Issued Today

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Outlook Image Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0803 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST WY...SOUTHWEST SD...WESTERN NE...SOUTHEAST MN...NORTHERN WI...U.P. OF MI... CORRECTED FOR SLIGHT RISK HEADLINE ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of hail and severe wind gusts will remain possible across portions of the northern and central High Plains this evening. A line of thunderstorms capable of locally damaging wind will move into southern Minnesota and central and northern Wisconsin this evening. A marginal tornado and damaging wind threat will persist with the remnants of Barry across the lower and mid Mississippi Valley. ...Northern/Central High Plains... Scattered strong thunderstorms across eastern WY will spread into southwest SD and western NE this evening. Steep midlevel lapse rates (as noted on 00Z soundings from RIW, LBF, and UNR) and effective shear of 30-40 kt will support a threat of hail and locally severe wind gusts while convection remains mostly discrete. Consolidating outflows may support some upscale growth, with an attendant threat of severe wind gusts should this occur. However, the likelihood and severity of any upscale growth remains uncertain, given only a weak low-level jet response tonight and the stabilizing effect of outflow across northwest NE. See MCD 1483 for more information. ...Southern MN into northern/central WI and the U.P of MI... While transient supercell structures have occasionally been noted the last couple of hours, convection has largely congealed into a loosely organized MCS across southern MN into northwest WI and the U.P. of MI. A threat of locally damaging wind will persist with this system for a few hours this evening, though a general weakening trend is expected, as the MCS moves into a region largely stabilized by outflow from earlier convection. See MCD 1484 for more information. ...Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley... Bands of generally weak convection continue to the south and east of the remnant circulation of Barry. Modestly enhanced low-level flow will support a threat for isolated damaging wind and perhaps a brief/weak tornado through the evening with the strongest bands. ..Dean.. 07/16/2019 Read more

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