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Current and Future Convective Outlooks

Convective Outlooks Issued Today

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Outlook Image Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat May 25 2019 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE MIDWEST... CORRECTED FOR 5% LABEL ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible from Nebraska eastward to the Midwest. Isolated severe storms are possible from northern Kansas southward through west Texas. ...Synopsis... Severe potential on D3/Monday will be tied to an approaching mid-level cutoff low that should reach the central Rockies by the end of the period. A belt of strong mid-level flow will exist on the southeastern periphery of the mid-level low, but this jet should remain mostly west of a surface dryline that will extend from southwestern Nebraska southward through west Texas through much of the day. Downstream, shortwave ridging will exist across the Missouri River Valley during the afternoon, while shifting eastward overnight. At the surface, a low will organize in eastern Colorado throughout the period, while a warm front extends across central Nebraska northeastward to southern Wisconsin. A buoyant airmass will reside south of this boundary throughout the forecast period. ...Nebraska/Iowa... Primary indications are that convection will be tied to the warm front through most of the forecast period, with strong capping and subsidence evident across the open warm sector through late in the period. Steep lapse rates aloft (especially over Nebraska) will foster hail with mostly elevated cells that form near the front, though any cells that can ingest surface-based parcels and reside near the warm front will have a risk of damaging wind and tornadoes. Guidance suggests that multiple rounds of convection may traverse this boundary through the forecast period. The greatest chance of warm-sector convection will exist across southern Nebraska and northwestern Kansas along and ahead of a stout dryline. This risk should be greatest after 00Z when forcing for ascent finally reaches the northwestern extent of the warm sector and weakens the cap. Supercellular shear profiles will foster storm organization, while strong instability and steep mid-level lapse rates will foster hail and damaging wind gusts. The tornado threat is a bit conditional in this area and will depend on timing of convective development - if storms develop too late in the forecast period they will likely be slightly elevated. Storms that can form earlier in the day will pose a threat of all severe hazards. Across western Nebraska, easterly low-level flow just north of the front may bring 50s F dewpoints up against higher terrain in Wyoming. A few thunderstorms may result, with shear profiles supportive of updraft rotation along with an attendant threat for hail, wind and perhaps an isolated tornado. Some uncertainty exists with this scenario, however, with some models suggesting more of a northerly component to low-level flow and stable low-levels. ...Southern Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana... Early-day convection may alter the position of a surface warm front, which models inconsistently depict across the area. By late afternoon, however, models hint at the potential for a few surface-based storms to develop south of the warm front, which seems plausible as models also indicate the passage of a mid-level shortwave trough just north of the region during peak heating hours. Should these storms materialize, they will reside in a strongly buoyant airmass, with vertical shear profiles favoring supercellular storms. Model inconsistencies lend greater-than-usual uncertainty, although the warm-sector environmental parameter space suggests that conditional Marginal/Slight risks are appropriate. ...Northern Kansas southward to Texas... Models generally depict only isolated storm development along the dryline - most likely after 03Z. This seems plausible given the late arrival of forcing and eastward shift of the dryline beginning after dark. Any storms that can develop along this boundary will have a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts, but will also struggle against mid-level inhibition. Thus, the severe threat in this area is conditional. ..Cook.. 05/25/2019 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Outlook Image Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Sat May 25 2019 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... The main wave associated with persistent long-wave troughing over the West will finally begin to eject over the central Plains on D4/Tuesday. This wave will result in a 70-knot mid-level jet overspreading western portions of a strongly buoyant airmass that should be mostly undisturbed from any prior convection. An expansive area of convection should evolve along and ahead of a surface dryline located from western Oklahoma northward to southeastern Nebraska and along a warm front extending from a surface low in eastern Nebraska eastward to southern lower Michigan. Although mesoscale details are still unclear at this timeframe, the extent of convective coverage over the warm sector within a parameter space potentially supporting significant severe weather justifies introduction of a 30% area (equivalent to Enhanced Slight) in eastern Kansas, western Missouri, and northeastern Oklahoma within a broader area of 15% probabilities from the Oklahoma/Texas Red River northeastward to Iowa/Illinois. The specific locations of heightened risk may change with subsequent outlooks. This wave will shift northeastward and weaken as the attendant surface front/dryline stalls or retreats slightly northwestward ahead of another disturbance that will eject from New Mexico into the southern and central Plains on D5/Wednesday. Models suggest that a cluster of storms will evolve in north Texas and vicinity in response to the wave, convergence along remaining surface boundaries, and strong warm-sector instability. A 15% area has been added to address this threat. Later in the period (D7/Fri), a strong mid/upper disturbance will amplify while taking on a negative tilt over Ontario/Quebec. Strong mid/upper flow will overspread portions of the Northeast and Appalachians during this time. Meanwhile a cold front will migrate southeastward into an airmass that should be weakly to moderately unstable around peak heating hours barring any rainfall or prior widespread convective overturning. It appears that this pattern will support a severe risk in portions of the area, though convective coverage is not spatially focused in guidance to justify a 15% delineation at this time. This region will be monitored in future outlooks for a more consistent convective signal that would justify probabilities. Read more

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